The additional wild card entry in the playoffs is having very different effects on shaping the races in the two major leagues. In the American League, it has clearly increased the value of winning a division, as the AL East race shows. In the National League, it has kept five break-even teams alive with less than three weeks left in the season.
By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles
The addition of one wild card team to each league's playoff mix has had two charming effects on the playoff races.
First, and most happily, it has restored winning a regular season championship -- a division -- as the objective of the regular season. Next, the game's officers might work out how to make the divisional races better, though relieving them of the wild card's corruption is a good start. So often, a good divisional race has meant nothing because the loser was going in as a wild card on exactly the same footing.
Second, and a little more absurdly, the additional wild card has expanded playoff aspirations to more markets. With less than three weeks remaining in the regular season, 18 of 30 major league clubs are still within reach of a playoff berth. Five of them are break-evenish National League teams.
The second effect is not felt so strongly in the American League, which has a thick top layer of teams, a thick bottom layer, and no middle layer. The playoffs basically already have begun in the AL. The remainder of the regular season will eliminate three teams of the eight winners, instead of the four that it would have eliminated the old way. But the new way is better because it has renewed the division championship.
In the AL East today, we have the Yankees, Baltimore and Tampa Bay fighting at the top. Under last year's format, one was going to win the division, and another could have won a wild card, and getting in either way would have been just as good. Now, all three could go to the postseason, but they're all fighting like mad to win the division because the wild card is so diluted. The wild card has become a very expensive coin flip for getting into the real playoffs as a road dog, probably with your best pitcher pushed to the back of the rotation after working the wild card game.
It's better than nothing, but just barely. And that's as it should be. This new baseball wild card system values wild-card entry correctly by treating it as what it is, which is a gimmick. It says to the wild card teams, "You really shouldn't be here. We're giving you one last chance." They don't even receive the dignity of a real playoff, some arrangement that would respect them as baseball teams, at least a best-of-three. It's one game, which says it really doesn't matter which team wins, because you're going forward with a limp, anyway.
For that little table scrap, for that little bit of a chance at glory, a struggling middle class of National League teams is laying out the last three weeks. Unlike the American League, with its two levels of winners and losers, the National League has a much more equal landscape. The standings make two differences between the leagues clear: the NL lacks a dominant big-market team, and the NL has a very medium tier of teams right around break-even that is missing from the AL. The NL has five teams within two games of .500, either way. The AL has no teams within six games of .500, either way.
Whether a .500 club should be a playoff contender is a value question that has come up due to recent developments that might sound a little familiar. It's also a question that we're going to have to live with, because without it, there would be no suspense in the National League.
Right now, the Atlanta Braves are 82-63, holding a six-game lead over St. Louis for the first wild card position. Worth noting that at exactly the same point last year, the Braves were 84-61, holding a 6 1/2-game lead on the Cardinals for the only wild card position. At the same time last year, just like this year, the divisions were all but wrapped up. But there was no suspense at this time last year -- it was pretty clear who was going to the NL playoffs -- and there is suspense this year. What's different?
Of course, there ended up being suspense last year because the Braves faded and the Cardinals rallied past them to win the wild card spot on the last day of the season. And we're seeing a similar kind of action with the last wild card spot this year. Adding a spot has just dropped the level of suspense to a lower order of team, especially the way the last ten days have played out.
During those ten days, the leaders in that last wild card race, the Cardinals, Pirates and Dodgers, were 2-7, 1-7 and 2-6, respectively. Meanwhile, outliers in Milwaukee and Philadelphia reached .500 with performances of 6-3 and 8-1, respectively. Suddenly, they're both within 3 1/2 games of a playoff berth.
While the additional wild card spot makes 10 of 16 NL teams think they still have a chance, it costs a certain level of intensity. As the second team in line for a wild card last year, the Cardinals had to fight like a champion to catch Atlanta. As the second team in line for a wild card this year, the Cardinals have less incentive to catch the Braves than to hold off a wave of .500 teams.
From a national perspective, it's not as glorious. But from a half-dozen more local perspectives, it's good enough for staying tuned.
By BILL PETERSON
Big Leagues in Los Angeles
The addition of one wild card team to each league's playoff mix has had two charming effects on the playoff races.
First, and most happily, it has restored winning a regular season championship -- a division -- as the objective of the regular season. Next, the game's officers might work out how to make the divisional races better, though relieving them of the wild card's corruption is a good start. So often, a good divisional race has meant nothing because the loser was going in as a wild card on exactly the same footing.
Second, and a little more absurdly, the additional wild card has expanded playoff aspirations to more markets. With less than three weeks remaining in the regular season, 18 of 30 major league clubs are still within reach of a playoff berth. Five of them are break-evenish National League teams.
The second effect is not felt so strongly in the American League, which has a thick top layer of teams, a thick bottom layer, and no middle layer. The playoffs basically already have begun in the AL. The remainder of the regular season will eliminate three teams of the eight winners, instead of the four that it would have eliminated the old way. But the new way is better because it has renewed the division championship.
In the AL East today, we have the Yankees, Baltimore and Tampa Bay fighting at the top. Under last year's format, one was going to win the division, and another could have won a wild card, and getting in either way would have been just as good. Now, all three could go to the postseason, but they're all fighting like mad to win the division because the wild card is so diluted. The wild card has become a very expensive coin flip for getting into the real playoffs as a road dog, probably with your best pitcher pushed to the back of the rotation after working the wild card game.
It's better than nothing, but just barely. And that's as it should be. This new baseball wild card system values wild-card entry correctly by treating it as what it is, which is a gimmick. It says to the wild card teams, "You really shouldn't be here. We're giving you one last chance." They don't even receive the dignity of a real playoff, some arrangement that would respect them as baseball teams, at least a best-of-three. It's one game, which says it really doesn't matter which team wins, because you're going forward with a limp, anyway.
For that little table scrap, for that little bit of a chance at glory, a struggling middle class of National League teams is laying out the last three weeks. Unlike the American League, with its two levels of winners and losers, the National League has a much more equal landscape. The standings make two differences between the leagues clear: the NL lacks a dominant big-market team, and the NL has a very medium tier of teams right around break-even that is missing from the AL. The NL has five teams within two games of .500, either way. The AL has no teams within six games of .500, either way.
Whether a .500 club should be a playoff contender is a value question that has come up due to recent developments that might sound a little familiar. It's also a question that we're going to have to live with, because without it, there would be no suspense in the National League.
Right now, the Atlanta Braves are 82-63, holding a six-game lead over St. Louis for the first wild card position. Worth noting that at exactly the same point last year, the Braves were 84-61, holding a 6 1/2-game lead on the Cardinals for the only wild card position. At the same time last year, just like this year, the divisions were all but wrapped up. But there was no suspense at this time last year -- it was pretty clear who was going to the NL playoffs -- and there is suspense this year. What's different?
Of course, there ended up being suspense last year because the Braves faded and the Cardinals rallied past them to win the wild card spot on the last day of the season. And we're seeing a similar kind of action with the last wild card spot this year. Adding a spot has just dropped the level of suspense to a lower order of team, especially the way the last ten days have played out.
During those ten days, the leaders in that last wild card race, the Cardinals, Pirates and Dodgers, were 2-7, 1-7 and 2-6, respectively. Meanwhile, outliers in Milwaukee and Philadelphia reached .500 with performances of 6-3 and 8-1, respectively. Suddenly, they're both within 3 1/2 games of a playoff berth.
While the additional wild card spot makes 10 of 16 NL teams think they still have a chance, it costs a certain level of intensity. As the second team in line for a wild card last year, the Cardinals had to fight like a champion to catch Atlanta. As the second team in line for a wild card this year, the Cardinals have less incentive to catch the Braves than to hold off a wave of .500 teams.
From a national perspective, it's not as glorious. But from a half-dozen more local perspectives, it's good enough for staying tuned.
